Beating the Bookies Nookie

                                                                                         

Lets
be honest, horse racing is an inexact sport (science?), horses are
unpredictable animals which don't always perform according to
expectations. Jockeys too have their good and bad days (wrong side of
the bed syndrome) and if doping and race fixing allegations are to be
believed these too add to the uncertainty of the outcome of the race.
No
trainer would deliberately race a horse which he didn't think was
'fit'. But being fit and the horse being at its peak are two different
things. Just because a horse won or performed well in it's previous
race doesn't mean it's going to do well in it's next race. Why? There
are a multitude of reasons, for example, it may just have gone off it's
peak or it could be that it's at its peak but so are the others and
they're just simply quicker on the day.

The truth is that each horse is 'capable' of achieving a certain level
of performance and will generally in each race, perform within a given
'band' or performance range. How wide that performance range is
determines how good the horse is and how often it will win.
Horses are often
'handicapped' or given 'extra weight' to carry during a race to try
even out their performance and bring it into line with the other horses
in the field. However, think about it. The horse weighs a few hundred
kilos and carries a jockey weighing around 7 or 8 stone. What
difference is a few extra pounds going to make? Ok, if the extra few
pounds are the equivalent of 'the straw that broke the camels back'. If
you took an Olympic runner and strapped an extra couple of pounds to
his back, would it really effect his performance dramatically?
Probably, not. What would have a greater effect would be if he had a
bit of a cold, a minor injury etc . Of course it is also true that
horses with the highest handicap generally win, despite the extra
weight, mainly because they are better racehorses.
What we're trying to say is that you
can't just take a few facts and figures about a horses previous
performance and base the outcome of future race on these. There are
other factors which have a greater effect but that no one takes into
account. There is no such thing as a perfect system, for all the above
reasons and many more. Anyone who claims they have one is telling
'fibs'.
As with casinos, bookmakers
have the odds stacked in their favour. What we need to be successful at
horse racing is an 'edge', to shift the odds from the bookmakers favour
to the 'punter'.
This is exactly what punters need, 'an edge'. How?, by running the race, BEFORE the race is run…..
www.racedaily.com

About the author:
Carl Drechsler has been involved in U.K. Horse racing for 22 yrs specializing in statistics from U.K. horse racing. Together with several top experts in the United Kingdom, Carl has compiled 12 years of race data over a 4 year period to develop CERAS a system which has previously not been available to the general public. Carl is curently studying his PhD in analytical statistics in Horse Racing and will soon release a new book.

Article Source: http://www.Free-Articles-Zone.com