2007 NFL Betting: Analyzing The AFC North

                                                                                         

BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS): The Ravens abandoned their “good defense, no offense” tag once Head Coach Brain Billick began calling the plays six games into the season. The return of rickety but reliable Steve McNair at QB, the drafting of highly regarded guard Ben Grubbs and the upgrade of Willis McGahee at RB should keep the attack humming. The always intimidating defense lost a stud in LB Adalius Thomas but don’t expect defensive coordinator Rex Ryan to be any less aggressive. It’s not a stretch to see the Ravens at 7-0 before their bye week. Then comes a brutal second-half slate that includes the Chargers, Patriots and Colts, back-to-back-to-back.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 81-63
ATS: 79-69-6
HF: 34-15-2
HD: 8-9-3
AF: 10-16
AD: 23-17
Sportsbook Buster: The Ravens are just 2-9 ATS versus the Dolphins, who they play in Miami, Dec. 16
Sports Betting Angle: Baltimore has been one of the most reliable home favorites in the NFL the last nine seasons, amassing a 34-15-2 record (.693) ATS.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-8 SU, 8-7-1 ATS): There’s no question that in QB Carson Palmer, WR Chad Johnson and RB Rudi Johnson, the Bengals have the offensive explosiveness to compete with anyone. But can Cincinnati Head Coach Marvin Lewis finally construct a defense worthy of that high powered offense and, just as importantly, can the Bengals stay out of trouble with the law? The Bengals had nine players arrested in a nine-month period last year, which, clearly is no way to build a winning football team. Cincinnati has the talent to be 10-6 but could just as easily finish 6-10.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 54-90
ATS: 60-80-4
HF: 11-18-2
HD: 15-24
AF: 9-3
AD: 24-34-2
Sportsbook Buster: The Bengals are 7-1-1 ATS their last nine games versus the Patriots, who they face, Oct. 1.
Sports Betting Angle: Cincinnati has been a bad bet at home, forging just a 26-42-2 record (.382) ATS in Paul Brown Stadium, the last nine seasons.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS): Mike Tomlin brings his “Tampa 2” defense from Minnesota to Pittsburgh, ending the 15-year reign of Bill Cowher as Steelers head coach. The return of defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will ease the transition and Pittsburgh will maintain its 3-4 alignment, though help is needed at linebacker to ease the burden on safety Troy Polamalu. After suffering a motor cycle accident before the start of last season, QB Ben Roethlisberger is at full health and a return to his Super Bowl winning form of 2005 is eagerly anticipated. Like Cincinnati, Pittsburgh could finish anywhere from 10-6 to 6-10, depending on how the team performs.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 85-58-1
ATS: 73-67-4
HF: 29-33-1
HD: 6-3
AF: 17-14-2
AD: 21-17-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Steelers are 11-2 ATS at home on Monday night, where they play Baltimore, Nov. 5 and Miami, Nov. 26.
Sports Betting Angle: Pittsburgh has covered six straight games ATS at Cincinnati, where the teams meet, Oct. 28.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS): Winless in division play a year ago, it’s difficult to make a case for a change of basement residence for the Browns this season. There’s uncertainty at quarterback where Charlie Frye, Derek Anderson and rookie Brady Quinn (if he ever signs) are vying for the starting job but the running attack, led by recent arrival Jamal Lewis, operating behind guard Eric Steinbach and No. 1 draft pick, tackle Joe Thomas, should be improved. The Browns were 27th in total defense last year and the play of that unit, alone, probably won’t be good enough to keep Cleveland from finishing in the AFC North cellar again.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1999-2006)
SU: 40-88
ATS: 58-68-2
HF: 10-11
HD: 18-22-1
AF: 2-0
AD: 28-33-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Browns have lost seven straight ATS to the Steelers, who they play at home Sept. 9 and on the road Nov. 11.
Sports Betting Angle: Cleveland is 0-6 ATS when facing a division foe at home the game after playing a non-conference opponent.

Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog

Second of an eight-part NFL betting preview series
Next: Analyzing the AFC South

About the author:
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com
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